Will Star Wars The Force Awakens dethrone Avatar?

It's a question I've seen posed more and more lately. Will the hype train that is Star Wars The Force Awakens dethrone Avatar from its 5 year perch at #1 in all time box office gross?

The answer is no. 

Now don't get me wrong I am a big Star Wars fan and have been since I was a young child. As an adult no movie has moved me like Avatar did and it is beyond a shadow of a doubt my favorite movie. My reasoning for why The Force Awakens won't become number 1 however is based solely on the math, and the lack of world wide support.

I think the best comparison I can make from another movie would be Star Wars Episode 1, The Phantom Menace. It came out in 1999 after a long Star Wars movie layoff of 16 years and was hyped and marketed extremely well. You couldn't go anywhere without seeing products promoting the movie and every I knew was excited to see it. Just like what is happening with The Force Awakens. Episode 1 did fantastic at the box office making just over 1 billion dollars. However 46% of that was domestic sales and 54% was world wide. To beat Avatar right now you're going to need a higher foreign percentage of total sales. I feel you need the whole world to go see and keep seeing the movie. The world doesn't seem to be as invested into Star Wars as we do here in the USA. Let's look at the next Star Wars, Episode II was released in 2002 and made 649 million total with 48% domestic and 52% world wide. Only 10 years ago Episode III released and it made 848 million with 45% being domestic and 55% world wide. 

So the prequel trilogy Star Wars movies averaged a 46% domestic and 54% world wide gross. Avatars totals were a staggering 2.8 billion, but the key is only 27% of that was domestic and a whopping 73% was world wide. Titanic was similar with a 2.2 billion gross, of which 30% was domestic and 70% was world wide. 

My prediction is Star Wars The Force Awakens will finish #2 all time in domestic sales and #4 overall in combined gross. I am predicting 680 million domestically, which would edge out Titanic (659 million) but fall short of Avatars 760 million. The overall total being just under 1.5 billion, leaving it behind Jurassic World, and safely behind Titanic, and Avatar.

So don't fret my Avatar friends, I think we are safe at the top until Avatar 2 is released. You all have my permission to go and see The Force Awakens, just don't go too many times. ;)

-Wameyn